Barca are all but in the final of the Champions League once again. The circumstances are such that another win is on the cards for them with a particularly miserable night for Cristiano Ronaldo, so bet accordingly, says Jamie Pacheco.
First things first. I was surprised Pepe got his marching orders for that challenge on Dani Alves. It was high and a little reckless (even though not much contact was made) but a straight red was inconsistent with the way Wolfgang Stark had refereed the match up to that point.
With the possible exception of Sergio Ramos' booking which was for a downright cynical foul, most of the cards brandished up to then were for persistent fouling. Stark got the Pepe incident wrong but the truth is the blame lies with Alves for making such a meal of it. It's not the first time we've seen the Brazilian do this on a football pitch and he's not alone in doing what he felt he needed to be done to turn a finely-balanced match his team's way. What it means though is that Pep Guardiola's team have lost the right to talk about playing football in the right way and in the right spirit. Because it wasn't just Alves; throughout the match virtually every Barca player was guilty of brandishing imaginary cards, shouting in Stark's face and generally putting pressure on the ref to punish the opposing players. Sadly we've seen plenty of this from Mourinhos' sides in the past but on the night, Barca were just as bad as them.
Match Odds
Barcelona have won 21 of their last 23 matches in all competitions; the other two were league draws against Mallorca and the 1-1 stalemate against Real a few weeks back. For what it's worth, I felt Barcelona were the better side for much of the match well before the sending-off and that the best Real could have hoped for prior to Pepe's dismissal was a goalless draw.
Sergio Ramos is a bit of a loose cannon but Real will miss his positional awareness and experience of playing big matches. The reason Pepe is so important for Real in that anchor role is because of his heading ability that would have allowed him to dominate Barcelona's much smaller midfield when it came to any aerial battles.
They'll miss him too.
If you've ever seen Barca play for a draw just because they don't actually need to, you've matched more of them than I have. It's not a huge price at [1.7], but they're that price for a reason.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
The absence of the two aforementioned players will make Real weaker at the back and the chance of goals obviously increases for that reason alone. That said, rarely did Real threaten at all in the first leg so there's no reason why they should all of a sudden pose such a threat at the Camp Nou. Overs will probably pay out one way or another at 1.68 but you'd probably be better off backing Barca 3-0 at [16.0] if you fancy the three goal barrier to be broken.
To Score
There will be plenty wanting to get with Lionel Messi to score once again at odds of [2.0] or better and to be honest, I can't blame them.
But I'd rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.6]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real's chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank.
To be shown a card?
In normal circumstances the [2.5] on another sending-off in this match would be appealing given what's gone on between these two over the past three weeks. But these aren't normal circumstances because I don't think there's any way a Barcelona player will allow himself to get sent off in the second leg of a tie that is all but done and dusted; that would just be giving Real what they want, irrespective of the latter being knocked out anyway. Meaning [2.5] on a Real player getting his marching orders again, looks a tad short. The better option is to go in search of a couple of Real players who may let the occasion get the better of them.
Alvaro Arbeloa ([2.5)] was given the run-around in the first leg and will be seeing plenty of Lionel Messi running straight at him. Further upfield the aforementioned Cristiano Ronaldo ([4.0]) may have to endure Messi proving once again that it's him and not Ronaldo who is the best player on the planet and this may be the night the Portuguese skipper lets his frustrations out on opponent or referee.
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First things first. I was surprised Pepe got his marching orders for that challenge on Dani Alves. It was high and a little reckless (even though not much contact was made) but a straight red was inconsistent with the way Wolfgang Stark had refereed the match up to that point.
With the possible exception of Sergio Ramos' booking which was for a downright cynical foul, most of the cards brandished up to then were for persistent fouling. Stark got the Pepe incident wrong but the truth is the blame lies with Alves for making such a meal of it. It's not the first time we've seen the Brazilian do this on a football pitch and he's not alone in doing what he felt he needed to be done to turn a finely-balanced match his team's way. What it means though is that Pep Guardiola's team have lost the right to talk about playing football in the right way and in the right spirit. Because it wasn't just Alves; throughout the match virtually every Barca player was guilty of brandishing imaginary cards, shouting in Stark's face and generally putting pressure on the ref to punish the opposing players. Sadly we've seen plenty of this from Mourinhos' sides in the past but on the night, Barca were just as bad as them.
Match Odds
Barcelona have won 21 of their last 23 matches in all competitions; the other two were league draws against Mallorca and the 1-1 stalemate against Real a few weeks back. For what it's worth, I felt Barcelona were the better side for much of the match well before the sending-off and that the best Real could have hoped for prior to Pepe's dismissal was a goalless draw.
Sergio Ramos is a bit of a loose cannon but Real will miss his positional awareness and experience of playing big matches. The reason Pepe is so important for Real in that anchor role is because of his heading ability that would have allowed him to dominate Barcelona's much smaller midfield when it came to any aerial battles.
They'll miss him too.
If you've ever seen Barca play for a draw just because they don't actually need to, you've matched more of them than I have. It's not a huge price at [1.7], but they're that price for a reason.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
The absence of the two aforementioned players will make Real weaker at the back and the chance of goals obviously increases for that reason alone. That said, rarely did Real threaten at all in the first leg so there's no reason why they should all of a sudden pose such a threat at the Camp Nou. Overs will probably pay out one way or another at 1.68 but you'd probably be better off backing Barca 3-0 at [16.0] if you fancy the three goal barrier to be broken.
To Score
There will be plenty wanting to get with Lionel Messi to score once again at odds of [2.0] or better and to be honest, I can't blame them.
But I'd rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.6]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real's chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank.
To be shown a card?
In normal circumstances the [2.5] on another sending-off in this match would be appealing given what's gone on between these two over the past three weeks. But these aren't normal circumstances because I don't think there's any way a Barcelona player will allow himself to get sent off in the second leg of a tie that is all but done and dusted; that would just be giving Real what they want, irrespective of the latter being knocked out anyway. Meaning [2.5] on a Real player getting his marching orders again, looks a tad short. The better option is to go in search of a couple of Real players who may let the occasion get the better of them.
Alvaro Arbeloa ([2.5)] was given the run-around in the first leg and will be seeing plenty of Lionel Messi running straight at him. Further upfield the aforementioned Cristiano Ronaldo ([4.0]) may have to endure Messi proving once again that it's him and not Ronaldo who is the best player on the planet and this may be the night the Portuguese skipper lets his frustrations out on opponent or referee.
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